Expert predicted decline in COVID-19 incidence in Russian regions
The decline in the incidence of COVID-19 in almost all regions will begin at the end of November. Aghasi Tavadyan, an expert on statistics and modeling at the Center for Economic Research, came to this conclusion based on statistical data on the coronavirus in Russia, RIA Novosti reports.
The subjects of the country on the map according to the prevalence of the disease are divided into four groups depending on the growth of distribution: "green", where the prevalence rate is less than 0.9 (positive), "light yellow" — 0.9-1.0 (stable), " orange "- 1.0-1.1 (satisfactory)," light red "- 1.1-1.2 (negative — unsatisfactory); "dark red" — more than 1.2 (heavy). If the index is less than one, then the spread fades; it intensifies if it is greater than one.
According to Aghasi Tavadyan, we should not relax when the situation stabilizes. One of the main variables affecting morbidity is people's behavior, adherence to social distancing norms, and wearing masks.
In Bashkortostan, according to the scientist, at the moment, the state of the spread of the coronavirus is assessed as satisfactory; that is, the region is in the "orange" group in terms of the coronavirus spread.
As previously reported, according to official data on November 18, the number of new coronavirus cases in Bashkiria since the beginning of the pandemic has reached 12684 people. Over the past day, COVID-19 was detected in 119 people, and another 366 residents were diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia. 70 people died from the coronavirus.