29 August 2013, Thursday, 16:18
author: Elvira Latypova
In 2014-2016 an average rate of gross regional product (GRP) growth will make 105,1 — 105,3 percent. In 2016 GRP volume in absolute value will reach 1,6 trillion rbl. The basic variant of forecast of republican social and economic development was presented at the meeting of the Government of Bashkortostan on Wednesday by Vice-Premier Evgeniy Mavrin.
According to the moderate-optimistic forecast, since 2014 the annual gain of investments will be increased from expected 5,1 percent current year to 7-8 percent in 2016.
Stimulation of investment activity will lead to stable growth in construction rates — 106,4 — 106,5 percent.
Rate of growth of industrial outputs in average annual terms will make about 104,3 percent for 2014-2016. The share of innovative production will increase from 6 percent in 2012 to 7,5 percent in 2016.
Taking into account restorative processes agricultural production growth in 2014 will make 108,8 percent, the next years — about 105 percent.
The export growth, according to Evgeniy Mavrin, may recommence in 2015, but it will be moderate, no more than 2,6 percent. Thus export of vehicles and equipment in 2014-2016 will increase up to 103,5 percent a year, its share in the general structure of export will increase from 4,5 percent in 2012 to 5,2 percent in 2016.
During the forthcoming three years an average annual growth of balanced financial result by all kinds of economic activities will make 7 percent and by 2016 will be at the level of 161,4 billion rbl. Labour efficiency will annually grow by five percent.
Real disposable incomes of the population and, accordingly, a retail trade turnover in 2014-2016 will grow by 5-6,5 percent a year. Consumer expenses trends will contribute essentially to GRP growth. The monthly average salary will increase to 31,7 thousand rbl. in the republic by 2016.
“All options of the forecast are worked out in close interaction with Institute for Socioeconomic Studies of Ufa Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences,” Evgeniy Mavrin stated.
Till the end of September the forecast should be submitted for approval to the State Assembly — Kurultay RB.