The rise of crediting threatens with the rise of the refinancing rate
The Central Bank of Russia doesn’t exclude the possibility of toughening the normative regulation in the banks sector and the main reason is the substantial rise of the bank assets. For the last six months the volumes of the bank assets increased almost by 17% (more than 34,752 billion rubles), while in 2010 this figure was equal to 14,9%.
This growth is connected first of all with the increase of the volumes of financing, which share in the overall amount of the assets is equal to 68%. Thus, in June 2011 the volumes of credits to the non-financial organizations increased by 1,9% and to the natural persons – by 2,3%. Besides, the combined assets of the banks in June increased by 1,4% mainly due to the rise of crediting. The resource base of the credit organization was also increased. According to information of the Central Bank of Russia the volumes of corporate means on settlement accounts and other accounts increased by 3,8%, the deposits of legal persons (not taking the credit organizations into account) – by 2,6, and the deposits of natural persons – by 2,2%. It is also marked that in the first half of 2011 the credit organizations have received the aggregate pre-tax profit at the rate of 232,7 billion rubles, i.e. 1,5 times more than for the same period of time in 2010.
“The increase of the crediting volumes can lead to faster money circulation and to the growth of the monetary mass and that can adversely affect the inflation” – the analysts of the Credit Organizations Association RB say – “So the possible monetary-credit restriction from the Central Bank of Russia will be aimed at the lowering of the amount of the resource base of the commercial banks with the purpose to avoid the overgrowth of the monetary mass. And the rise of the refinancing rate (at present time it is equal to 8,25%) can be considered as one of the measures for toughening of the monetary-crediting policy as well as the increase of the norms of the bank deductions to the fund of the obligatory reserves (4-5,5% at present time)”.