18 May 2010, Tuesday, 15:58
author: Elvira Latypova
The new budget cycle started. The forthcoming period will be characterized by several peculiarities, caused by rather uneasy economic situation and by the normative novelties.
The period of active work over the forecasts for 2011-2013 and calculations begins for the ministries of the economic block. The balance of the budget, the efficiency of our economics and, finally, the level of life of the population will depend upon the results of this work. The meeting of the interdepartmental governmental budget commission, held on May 18 in the Republic House, was devoted to the aspects of efficient budgeting. The meeting was headed by the first Vice-Premier, the Minister of finances RB Airat Gaskarov. He indicated several peculiarities of the future budget period and in particular told about the forthcoming legislative innovations. Thus, the federal program for the rise of efficiency of budget expenses is prepared to be approved now and the concept of efficient budgeting should be approved at the Republican level.
One more complexity is that the new budget will be prepared still in the crisis conditions in economics and during the modernization of the whole financial system of the country. The aim to introduce the program-purposeful principle of the authority’s activity is set at the federal level and it means the major part of the budget means will be spent for the purposeful programs, which have to have the strict indicators of effectiveness and this effectiveness presumes very severe responsibility.
“We have to protect our population from the forecasted negative factors, minimizing the after-effects and providing for the stable functioning of the whole budget network” – the head of the Ministry of finances RB underscored – “The measures for regulating the budget allowed the Republican budgets of all levels entering a new period, being well-balanced and the main thing for us now is preservation of this balance”.
The Minister of economic development RB Eugene Evtushenko told about the forecasted indices of economic progress. He has reminded that the economics was affected by the global crisis in 2009 but thanks to the accumulated potential and correct anti-crisis steps the financial and social stability in the Republic was preserved. As a result the macroeconomic showings in Bashkortostan were higher than in Russia and in Volga federal district on average.
The crisis has become the constraint in achievement of the strategic goals. The production volumes in construction sphere dropped. The financial situation at local enterprises aggravated. The Republic managed to avoid mass unemployment but the number of jobless people has nonetheless increased. The growth of real incomes of population stopped and that entailed the narrowing of the consumer market.
The beginning of 2010 brought some positive changes. The growth of the gross regional product made up 7%, the export grew up 2,7 times. “The analysis of the main indices of social-economic development since the beginning of the year proves the beginning of the restorative period in economics” – Eugene Evtushenko said – “At the same time a certain period of time is needed for reaching the pre-crisis level. The factors, anticipating the dynamics of the slump, still dominate in our economics, such as the dependency upon the conjuncture of the world fuel prices, low level of development of many market institutes, the low level of competitive ability of several non-raw material sectors of economics etc”.
The economists have worked up several preliminary variants of social-economic development in 2011 and for the period till 2013. The basic scenario presumes rather optimistic dynamics of the world economy, stable internal consumer and investment demand, realization of the investment programs in the infrastructural sectors (in gas sphere and electrical power-engineering) and rather small growth of the state investment expenses. The oil price (Urals) is expected at the level of 76 USD for one barrel in 2010-2011, 78 USD in 2012, 79 – in 2013. At that the growth of the gross internal product will make up 4% in 2010, 3,5% in 2011 and 2012 and 4,2% in 2013.
The second more optimistic scenario is based on the highest parameters of the oil prices forecasts. According to this variant in 2011 oil will cost 81 USD for one barrel, 85 USD in 2012 and 90 in 2013. The growth of the gross internal product will be correspondingly by 0,2-0,4% higher.
The third variant comes out from the same oil prices that the basic scenario but presumes more severe budget policy, the reduction of the state investments, stagnation of the bank crediting in 2010 and rather low progress later. In this case the growth of the gross internal product in 2011 will make up just 2,7%.
The fourth variant comes out from the aggravation of the external economic conjuncture because of activation of the gas slates mining operations and due to active increase of oil mining by Iraq. In this case oil can cheapen to 68 dollars for one barrel in 2012 and to 62 dollars in 2013. In accordance with this variant the gross internal product will make up 3,1% in 2010, 2,7% in 2011 and 2,3-2,4% in 2012-2013.
In Bashkortostan the rates of growth of the gross internal product according to the basic variant in 2011 can make up 104,4%, in 2012 – 104,8% and in 2013 – 105,5%, Eugene Evtushenko reported. Correspondingly the volume of the gross regional product will make up 888 billion rubles, 1029 and 1073 billion rubles. The index of industrial production in 2011-2013 is forecasted at the level of 105,4%, 105,8 and 106,3% correspondingly. By 2013 the level of inflation won’t exceed 106%. The rates of growth of the real disposable monetary incomes of population in 2011 will make up 105,8%, 107,1% in 2012 and 108,8% in 2013. As compared with the level of 2009 the average salary in 2013 will increase one and a half times.
All main parameters of the forecast will be corrected after the approval of the scenario for the whole Russian economics.