21 October 2009, Wednesday, 15:21
author: Nikolai Ermolenko
Minister of economic development RB Eugene Evtushenko forecasts restoration of economic growth in Bashkortostan beginning fr om 2010 and it will be in many respects connected with realization of the anti-crisis arrangements, aimed at the rise of stability and at recovery of economics. Social protection of population and stabilization of the labor market, the rise of competitiveness in real sector of economics through support of some kinds of economic activity – machine-building, agriculture, housing building, housing-communal services, small and medium business, stability of financial budget system and support of the towns with mono-structural economics are determined as the prior arrangements. Eugene Evtushenko cited this data, introducing the forecast of social-economic development RB in 2010 and till 2012 (the forecast’s project) at today’s meeting of State Council RB.
Coming from the abovementioned conditions the growth of the gross regional product in 2010 will make 1,7% in accordance with the basic variant. It will be provided due to growth of industrial production volumes by 1,3% and building volumes by 0,6%, the volume of retail trade turnover by 2,3% and stable development of Bashkir agriculture.
In 2009 the Ministry of economic development RB predicts the recession, estimated at 5,7% for the first time for the last decade. Investments into the fixed capital will go down by 15%. The rates of growth of real disposable money incomes of population will slow down, making 101,8% against 111,9% in 2008. The nominal average monthly wage will grow up by 9,2%, making 15400 rubles.
Under the terms of still permanent uncertainty the forecast of Bashkortostan for the period till 2012 is for the first time for the last decade, as well as in Russia, was worked up in three variants: the favorable variant, the basic and the unfavorable one. The basic variant of the forecast of social-economic development RB was taken as the base when preparing the budget RB-2010. This variant takes the conservative estimate of external conditions and rather low dynamics of oil prices first of all into account: 56 dollars per one barrel in 2010, 59 USD in 2011 and 60 USD – in 2012. The average rates of world economics development were taken in the basic variant within the lim its from 1,6% in 2010 to 2,8% in 2012.